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IMMIGRANTS: No more boom of immigration - first foreign population falls

Confirmed. The economic crisis and unemployment have led to Spain closing the door to immigration. Or that the open ... but only the door. According to data from the last municipal census in Spain is home to nearly 5.73 million foreign. The figure shows the first decline in foreign population in Spain. Only 0.3% less. Only 17,067 immigrants less. But all of a radical shift in the demographic of the country.

Spain went in just fifteen years of total inexperience on immigration to become one of the countries around the world with the highest proportion of foreign-born population (despite the fall, representing 12 , 2% of the total population, just like last year). In the years of the English miracle, that long decade in which the English economy grew permanently in the vicinity of 3% above its neighbors in the EU, the country became the desired destination immigration.

Then the foreign population grew steadily and truly outrageous recorded annual increases: 48% in 2001, up 44% in 2002, up 35% in 2003, another 17% in 2004, 25% in 2005 ... [See chart]. With the good times the number of immigrants increased from just a few hundred thousand in the mid-nineties to exceed five million foreigners three years ago.

GDP and immigration

The 'pull effect' was the growth of the English economy and a labor market that seemed inexhaustible. Today that same labor market shows exhausted, arrivals of immigrants put the brakes on and even seems clear that there begins to be output, either to their home countries or other European destinations as its economy and gives signs of recovery. Already in 2009 there was a sharp slowdown in arrivals, closing the year with only 1.8% more foreign.

The economic situation has been the most decisive factor in the growth of the quota of immigrants, as confirmed by a report from the Bank of Spain. Since the number of entries and outflows of foreigners since 1980 and various economic and social data, the Bank of Spain has built an econometric model that identifies the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) English as the factor that best explains the increase in foreign population, well ahead the existence in Spain and communities of other nationalities, the shared language or geographical proximity to countries of origin.

estimates contained in the report, for each additional percentage point of growth of our economy, immigration increases received more than 10%.

In parallel, the Bank of Spain report contains a simulation of what would have meant the arrival of immigrants in the event that the English economy had shown strength in recent years. If instead of the strong growth achieved, Spain had recorded similar data to the rest of Europe, between 1998 and 2004 would have received less than 14% foreign, ie less than 461,000 immigrants who actually arrived.

The decline reflects the pattern foreigners apparently motivated by the economic slowdown of recent years and the current situation neutral, seems to give credence to the argument linking economic prosperity and employment to immigration.


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